Assessing the role of landuse landcover transition factors in mitigating surface urban heat risk : a study on Dhaka North city
Jalal, Mushfik (2022)
Jalal, Mushfik
2022
All rights reserved. This publication is copyrighted. You may download, display and print it for Your own personal use. Commercial use is prohibited.
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-2022112524193
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-2022112524193
Tiivistelmä
The aim of the research is to support policy guidelines in mitigating surface urban heat risk of Dhaka North City. The urban population of Bangladesh has increased by nearly ten times since independence, one third of which has taken place in Dhaka. During 1974 and 2017 the population of Dhaka grew at an annual rate of 5.4 % per acre. On the other hand, the city has witnessed a rise in temperature of around 3 °C in the last 20 years. Whereas the world is trying to limit the increase in global temperature within 1.5 °C. US EPA blames pattern of urban growth for the heat island effect across all around the world. Urban built-up areas are likely to transform natural landcover such as vegetation and water which causes disturbance in heat budget and tends to concentrate within urban area because of urban geometry. However, the growth of urban depends on the level and type of land consumption by population. Therefore, it is necessary to consider both physical and socio-economic factors to get informed about the pattern of heat increase on urban surface. This study analyses the pattern of Landuse Landcover (LULC) transition from 2001 to 2021 and interaction between socio-economic & physical factor in each administrative unit of the city. The spatial analysis output generates idea about how the land transition and socio-physical factors are combinedly contributing to increase of surface urban heat risk. Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI sensor has been used to extract information about surface temperature and LULC transition for the decades of 2001, 2011 and 2021 respectively. GIS data and Statistical information from Capital Development Authority (RAJUK) and Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) have been used to develop socio-economic and physical index of respective Thana areas of Dhaka North City. Using a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Neural Network model, the study also predicts susceptible LULC transition pattern of surface heat increase for the year of 2031 and 2041. To propose mitigation strategy for next 20 years, the study incorporates existing influential socio-economic and physical factors of surface heat reduction along with predicted susceptible areas of gradual heat intensity. This integrated approach of urban transition factors provides information about probable trend and distribution of heat propagation led by land transformation as well as potential approach and tool of heat mitigation. In this way, the proposed policy guidelines of heat mitigation paves the way to utilize capacity of existing resources and suggest best alternatives for Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) mitigation for the Dhaka North City.